Paul Wiegert, a Western physics and astronomy professor, shares insights on asteroid 2024 YR4 and the likelihood it will hit Earth or the Moon.

A small shift in trajectory has raised the risk of a lunar impact — but the scariest part is, we can't track it anymore.

YR4 holds a 4 per cent chance of hitting the Moon. Discovered after it had already passed Earth, the asteroid's trajectory highlights the limitations of current Earth-based detection systems.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 made headlines earlier this year when its probability of impacting Earth in 2032 rose as high as 3%. While an Earth impact has now been ruled out, the asteroid's story continues.

There is currently a 4.3% chance that the giant space rock 2024 YR4 will hit the moon in seven years. If this does happen, debris from the nuclear bomb-like impact could trigger a "spectacular ...

Okay, so it’s not that much more likely than 2024 YR4’s highest probability for Earth. But a 96-percent likelihood of missing the moon leaves room for the space rock to defy the odds.

In May 2025, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope captured a detailed observation of asteroid 2024 YR4. The space rock, large enough to destroy a city, was last spotted before it disappeared behind ...

The international astronomy community continues to closely watch asteroid 2024 YR4, which is no longer visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028. In May, a team led by Andy Rivkin, with ...

Science News: Asteroid 2024 YR4, though not an Earth threat, now poses a collision risk to the Moon. Scientists estimate a 4.3% chance of impact, potentially ejecti ...

Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially considered a potential threat to Earth, is now more likely to hit the moon in 2032. The asteroid, about the size of a 10-story building, has a 4.3% chance of lunar ...

Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a 2.3% chance of striking the Earth on Wednesday, Dec. 22, 2032, according to experts from NASA and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN).

According to a new study, a Moon strike by asteroid 2024 YR4 could create a debris cloud weighing more 100,000,000kg – 10 per cent of which could be drawn towards Earth in a matter of days ...